By El Profesor
Cruz Azul defeated at Tim Hortons Field, Forge FC, the Canadian team. Thanks to the Venezuelan Rómulo Otero after a long shot in a free-kick, the Celestes won 1-0 on Canadian turf.
The home team could not take advantage of their home stadium, however, their performance was not bad as they played their last official match in December. Forge FC plays in the Canadian League and starts until April, so the team came into the match out of form.
Cruz Azul will host the second leg of the round of 16 at the Estadio Azteca with a one-goal advantage. The Canadians have to be aggressive to try to beat the Liga MX team and surprise in the CONCACAF Champions League. The outlook looks tough for the visiting team but nothing is done yet.
Rómulo Otero had a great performance in the first game of the series. The midfielder scored a goal and made 27 correct passes. Luis Mendoza also performed well, the Cruz Azul midfielder made 36 correct passes and had two shots. Both players will be key to advancing to the next round of the competition.
Cruz Azul has had a total of 5 matches against Canadian teams, in which 4 of the games have been against Toronto FC, having won twice, lost once, and drawn once. The record is positive for the Liga MX team, and that certainly tips the scales in La Máquina's favor when it comes to concluding the prediction.
On the other side is Forge FC, which has only faced a Mexican team once in its history, and that was just last week against Cruz Azul, losing 0-1 at home.
Having said all this, and given the impossibility of carrying out a detailed study of case histories, we can state the following probabilities:
Cruz Azul wins: 85%.
Tie: 10%.
Forge FC wins: 5%.
Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
Time: 20:30 ET (US)
Location: Azteca Stadium, Mexico City
ET: 20:30
CT: 19:30
MT: 18:30
PT: 17:30
TV Channel: Fox Sports 2
Live stream: Foxsports.com Fox Sports App
TV Channel: Fox Sports
Live stream: Fox Sports App, Fanatiz México
At El Futbolero US, we decided to apply our own measurement system based on historical data of both teams with the help of "The Professor", knowledge of statistical patterns and Poisson distributions applicable through Python programming.
Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.
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