Qatar World Cup 2022: What is the prediction for Lionel Messi to be World Champion?

Leo Messi is now 32 years old -close to turning 33- and will be 35 when the next World Cup is played, which will be in 2022 in Qatar. 

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The Argentine star, who has never won a World Cup title with Argentina, could have his last chance at that event, as he will be 39 years old in 2026 and may no longer be active.

'La Pulga' has not had much luck with the Argentina national team, having lost two Copa America finals and also the 2014 World Cup final against Germany in extra time. 

The star, now at PSG, came within a whisker of the ultimate title but has never won it, so in 2022 he could have his last chance. Although, with such a talented player, who knows if he can also be present in 2026 at the age of 39. 

Lionel Messi's performance in World Cups 

Lionel Messi stood out in the 2014 FIFA World Cup with an average of 0.57 goals per game, scoring 4 goals, some of which were decisive for the Albiceleste to advance in the tournament. 

This graph shows how Argentina's performance progressed from 2006 onwards with the presence of the star, but the Russia 2018 World Cup did not meet expectations and they were knocked out in the round of 16 by the powerful and last world champion France with the help of his current teammate, Mbappé. 

This caused despair among sports fans to see the image of Messi not being able to lift the World Cup since, for many, it was his last World Cup; but everything indicates that with the performance of the Albiceleste in the South American Qualifiers for Qatar 2022, hopes are being rekindled.

Probability of Messi becoming World Champion with Argentina in Qatar 2022  

Argentina has a 9.5% chance of being world champion in the Qatar 2022 World Cup, this without the possible scenarios that we can imagine such as a possible qualification to one of the most difficult groups of the tournament or the absence of a star player due to injury or absences of teams where Argentina has negative records such as Germany. 

The absence so far from Italy or Portugal, helps Argentina to increase its chances as well as the performance of the "Pulga" in the last matches played with the Albiceleste. 

Messi's present and his numbers prove it, performing for the first time in his history much better for his national team than for his team.

This increases Argentina's mathematical chances of being crowned world champion with Messi at the helm by 15.9%. 

The number may be lower, but considering that the odds have to be divided among 32 participating teams, we clearly have one of the most favored teams of the tournament. 

Messi's probability of winning a hypothetical final against Germany or Brazil

If Argentina were to play Brazil in the final, Argentina's probability of winning the championship is 47%, being Brazil the strongest team in the definitive matches between the two nations. 

If the definition is with Germany, the history is wider at the world level. They have faced them 7 times, achieving only one win, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, so Argentina's probability of winning against Germany is 42% if we leave the draws in favor of the Albiceleste; but leaving the draws aside, the possibility is reduced to only 14%.

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