PSG vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction: who is more likely to win in the first leg?

Real Madrid Club de Futbol was very unlucky in the Champions League round of 16 draw. Finally, Carlo Ancelotti's team was drawn to face the mighty Paris Saint Germain of Lionel Andrés Messi, Cuccitini, Kylian Mbappé, and Neymar da Silva Santos Junior, in what will undoubtedly be one of the most entertaining matches.  

Mauricio Pochettino's team is one of the great favorites to lift the continental trophy this season, but even so, the Argentine coach has so far not been able to find the way back to a team that suffers from irregularities that are costing them important results in the season. 

The same is the case with Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid, who started the campaign in an unbeatable way, but did not start the year in the best way and is currently having a hard time getting back to the good level he had at the beginning of the semester. 

The first leg will take place next Tuesday, February 15 at the Parc des Princes at 22:00 (Spanish time), and the expectation to see who will win this first match is growing. Some believe that the home team has the advantage, others speculate on a Merengue victory, but the only certainty is that anything can happen in this sport and we can only wait until next week to see what happens. 

Who is the favorite in the first leg?

In a reduced history, since they only met six times in the UEFA Champions League, three of which were wins for Real Madrid, one win for Paris Saint-Germain, and two draws.

Another important factor is that PSG has never been able to win at home against Real Madrid, with three matches divided into one win for both teams and one draw. In this first leg, PSG will have a hard time getting a good result for the return leg at the Bernabeu. 

Can PSG make their home advantage count against Merengue?

PSG has a 19.58% chance of scoring at least two home goals to get a good result against Real Madrid. It all depends on how the series goes, but everything indicates that they will have a hard time getting a good result to reach the second leg at the Bernabeu. 

As can be seen in the bar chart, the probability of a draw or a close, low-scoring game is high, both exceeding 30%. 

Can Real Madrid start to define the series at the Park of the Princes? 

Undoubtedly, despite having a high probability (58.66%) of not scoring in the opponent's goal, its record is favorable and it has almost similar odds of scoring a goal as PSG (31.29%).

This indicates that according to their record, a draw or scoring a single goal would put PSG in trouble against the great power of Real Madrid. Adding the two odds together, it has an 89.95% chance of putting Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Mbapé's team in trouble.

Influence of the trident Lionel Messi, Neymar and Mbappe

Undoubtedly, this attacking trident elevates any PSG odds in their history. Adding the overall of each of them, the odds of PSG playing at the Parc des Princes are modified as follows. 

Probability of PSG not scoring: 32.50%.

Probability of PSG not scoring a goal: 44.12%.

Probability of scoring two goals PSG: 20.13%.

What system is applied to predict this data?

In El Futbolero Spain, we decided to apply our own measurement system based on historical data of both teams helped by "The Professor", knowledge of statistical patterns and Poisson distributions applicable through Python programming.

Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.